FridayOL

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has sparked countless debates and analyses, but few carry the weight of historical perspective. Renowned French historian Stéphane Audoin-Rouzeau, a leading expert on World War I, delivers a sobering assessment: Ukraine has already lost the war, and this defeat will reverberate across Europe and beyond. In a recent appearance before the French Senate, echoing a previous address in April, Audoin-Rouzeau draws parallels between the current situation and the catastrophic failures of the early years of World War I, warning of a potentially devastating outcome.

Audoin-Rouzeau's argument isn't rooted in a dismissal of Ukrainian resilience or bravery. He acknowledges the fierce resistance put up by the Ukrainian people and military. Instead, his analysis focuses on the geopolitical realities and strategic imbalances at play. He points to the overwhelming military power of Russia, its willingness to escalate, and the limitations of Western support as key factors contributing to Ukraine's inevitable decline.

The comparison to World War I is particularly chilling. Audoin-Rouzeau highlights the initial miscalculations, the disastrous offensives, and the prolonged stalemate that characterized the early years of that conflict. He argues that the current situation in Ukraine mirrors this pattern, with both sides digging in for a protracted and costly war of attrition. The unwavering support for Ukraine from the West, he suggests, may be prolonging the suffering without fundamentally altering the outcome.

“We are repeating the mistakes of 1914,” Audoin-Rouzeau stated bluntly. “The war in Ukraine is lost. It's a painful truth, but we must confront it.” He warns that continued entanglement in the conflict risks drawing other nations into the fray, potentially triggering a wider European war – a scenario reminiscent of the chain reaction that plunged Europe into the First World War.

His critique extends to the strategies employed by both sides. He questions the effectiveness of Western sanctions against Russia, arguing that they have failed to cripple the Russian economy and have instead inflicted hardship on European citizens. He also criticizes the lack of a clear diplomatic strategy to resolve the conflict, emphasizing the need for a negotiated settlement, however unpalatable it may seem.

The implications of Audoin-Rouzeau’s assessment are profound. If Ukraine is indeed destined to lose, the focus should shift from military support to mitigating the consequences of that loss. This includes preparing for a potential Russian expansion, bolstering European defenses, and engaging in serious diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation. Ignoring this warning, he argues, could lead to a repeat of the tragic errors that defined the 20th century.

While his words are harsh and unsettling, Audoin-Rouzeau’s perspective offers a crucial reality check. It's a call for sober reflection and a willingness to confront uncomfortable truths, even as the world grapples with the devastating consequences of the war in Ukraine. His expertise in a conflict that reshaped the world serves as a stark reminder of the dangers of miscalculation and the importance of seeking a path towards peace, however challenging it may be.