FridayOL

High-stakes negotiations between Iran and the United States aimed at reviving the 2015 nuclear deal concluded in Rome on Friday, yielding limited progress and leaving Tehran increasingly doubtful about the prospects of a breakthrough. Sources within Iran's government have expressed growing skepticism, citing a hardening position from Washington that appears to be moving away from earlier compromises.

The fifth round of talks, held amidst heightened regional tensions and concerns over Iran's nuclear program, saw both sides reiterate their core demands. The US has reportedly insisted on stricter verification measures and limitations on Iran's enrichment capabilities, while Iran has maintained that it will not accept terms that significantly curtail its nuclear ambitions or jeopardize its economic interests.

A Rocky Road to Revival

The original Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or nuclear deal, was signed in 2015 between Iran, the US, the UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China. It placed restrictions on Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. However, the US unilaterally withdrew from the deal in 2018 under the Trump administration and reimposed crippling sanctions on Iran, prompting Tehran to gradually roll back its commitments under the agreement.

The current negotiations aim to restore the JCPOA and bring all parties back into compliance. However, the process has been fraught with challenges. Key sticking points include the sequencing of steps – whether sanctions relief should come before Iran reverses its nuclear advances – and the scope of sanctions relief. Iran has demanded the lifting of all US sanctions, while Washington has indicated it is unlikely to remove all penalties, particularly those imposed in response to Iran's support for regional proxies and its human rights record.

Tehran's Growing Concerns

Sources in Tehran suggest that the US delegation has shown less flexibility in recent sessions, raising concerns that Washington may not be genuinely committed to reaching an agreement. They point to the continued imposition of sanctions and the lack of clear signals that the US is willing to offer substantial economic incentives to entice Iran back into the deal. “The atmosphere is not encouraging,” one Iranian official reportedly stated. “We are seeing a pattern of demands without reciprocation.”

International Reactions

The slow progress in the talks has drawn criticism from some international observers. European powers, who remain committed to the JCPOA, have urged both sides to show greater urgency and compromise. China and Russia have also called for a swift resolution to the impasse. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has expressed concerns about Iran's nuclear activities, urging Tehran to cooperate fully with its inspections.

What's Next?

The future of the nuclear deal remains uncertain. Further negotiations are expected, but the prospects of a breakthrough are dimming. The outcome will have significant implications for regional stability and the global non-proliferation regime. A failure to revive the JCPOA could lead to a further escalation of tensions between Iran and the US, potentially triggering a wider conflict. Conversely, a successful agreement could pave the way for a more stable and predictable relationship between the two countries.

As the talks stall, diplomatic efforts continue behind the scenes, with intermediaries attempting to bridge the gap between the two sides. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether the JCPOA can be salvaged or whether the world is headed towards a more dangerous future.